Coherent antecedent climate–fire relationships at the macroscale levels analysed in this study [using area burned derived from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity dataset (1984–2010)] are generally consistent with previous analyses in forested and non-forested systems (e.g. Westerling et al. 2003; Littell et al. 2009). The lack of significant relationships between spring (March–May) temperature and FSAB [fire season area burned] differ from previous studies (e.g. Westerling et al. 2006) that encompassed a period of amplified springtime warming and snowpack recession in the western United States (Abatzoglou and Redmond 2007). We do, however, find midwinter SWE [snow water equivalent] was the strongest long-lead correlate to FSAB in several forested GACCs [Geographic Area Coordination Center]. Below-normal winter SWE may help precondition large-diameter dead fuels and contribute to the commencement of fuel availability in montane regions (e.g. Westerling et al. 2006; Gedalof 2011). This is further corroborated by the evolution of negative correlations with PDSI [Palmer Drought Severity Index] towards the end of spring that strengthen throughout the fire season in forested GACC areas.
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Abatzoglou, J. T. & Kolden, C. A. (2013). Relationships between climate and macroscale area burned in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire, http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13019